middle east

This book is a detailed political, historical and social analysis of Central Europe, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and the countries of the Caucasus. Kaplan begins his journey in Budapest. After visiting with friends there, he boards the train to visit Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan. Later, he arrives again in Turkey to head east to travel through Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. At each stop along the way, he discusses politics and history with political leaders, dissidents, friends, and ordinary people. He combines comments from these sources with skilled observations of how society is working from the ground up in each locale to create extremely well-thought out and informed analyses of the social and political situation in the countries that he visits.

By happenstance, I read this book immediately after reading Peter Theroux's Great Train Bazaar. What a contrast- - although their journey followed the same route for much of the way, Theroux told us little more about the countries he visited than the wines available within easy reach of the train station- -Kaplan sees so much more. Theroux sets off on his trip because he wants a trip to write about and he likes trains. Kaplan also takes his trip to get material to write about, but Kaplan first begins by writing a very clear list of questions that he plans to research during the trip. He wants to understand "the future borders of Europe, the underpinnings of the coming meltdown of Arab dictatorships, and the social and political effects of new Caspian Sea energy pipelines." He also wants to know "how people saw themselves. Were national or ethnic loyalties giving way to new forms of cosmopolitanism, through globalization? If so, what did that mean for the future of authoritarian regimes? If dictatorships gave way to more democratic rule, would that mean more stability or less- -more civility or less- -in the countries through which [he] would pass?" These are very heavy questions, and answers to them should be of interest to all global citizens, (especially policy makers, we would hope).

Kaplan's observations and quotations cut to the quick of global society and culture. Kaplan's phrases like "social anarchy", "kleptocracy," and "moral vacuum" are brilliant descriptions of so many parts of the new Eastern Europe-Western Asia. In Romania, he is told "When we buy computers, compact disks, and clothes, we borrow the material consequences of the West without grasping the fundamental values that created such technologies in the first place." In Turkey, a human rights activist tells him "Westernization here is interpreted as secularization, not as democratization." In Bulgaria, his observations lead him to comment "The illusion that human progress is inexorable arises from the accident of one's historical and geographical good fortune." In Syria, he notes "Arab society was a conundrum: Among themselves, and in the privacy of their own homes, honesty, civility, and cleanliness reigned, yet none of these attributes overflowed into public life and spaces." After exploring the ritzy facades and partially hidden poverty of post-war Lebanon, he notes "Lebanon suggest that the 'end of history' is not democracy or humanism but materialism. People wanted goods and the money with which to buy them more than they wanted the rule of law." Later, "Middle East politics are like those of the ancient world- -a Greek or Roman could understand them better than an American." (Could this be why we're having so much trouble in Iraq?) Near the end of his journey in Turkmenistan, he looks back "But what were my conclusions after almost four thousand miles of travel?... That power and self-interest would shape the immediate future, at least in this part of the world." On the bright side, he states that the greatest lesson that he learned in Israel was that "Self-interest at its healthiest implicitly recognizes the self-interest of others, and therein lies the possibility of compromise." But he goes on to warn "A rigid moral position admits few compromises."

This is a scary book, and many of its comments and conclusions are out of alignment with "political correct" ideology. But after traveling through parts of this region, and living on the margins of it for five years where I was in constant contact with people from this region, I find Kaplan's observations to be incredibly accurate. They are based on thorough research and observation, not wishful thinking or armchair travel. Is Kaplan a pessimist? No, he's just well traveled.

Robert Kaplan's book "Eastward to Tartary" is a bold and incisive firsthand look into the present and possible futures of Eastern Europe, the Near East and the Caucuses.

Kaplan's reflections on his journeys give the reader great food for thought. Kaplan deftly traces the possible fault lines of future conflicts and global problem spots. His conclusions give fresh urgency to the Biblical injunction to "be shrewd as serpents and innocent as doves" (Matthew 10:16).

"Eastward to Tartary" is not your typical piece of travel writing. It not only describes the areas dealt with, it analyzes the possible future of each region. The book is no mere academic missive written by a policy wonk either. Chapter after chapter, Kaplan demonstrates his skill as a writer. He is a true craftsman with words. I read this book quite quickly due to how compelling and well written it is. Each chapter draws the reader into the next.

Books like this should be required reading for leaders in the West. Not everyone will agree with Kaplan's conclusions. This notwithstanding, "Eastward to Tartary" is one heck of a wake-up call. I recommend it highly.

One of the sad shortcomings of American society is that it has produced generations of illiterates when it comes to an understanding of the complexity of the world. When given a choice between watching some "reality" show versus reading about significant world events that can affect our lives, millions will chose who gets voted off the island versus understanding why Sept 11, 2001 happened. Kaplan digs deep into the real world, but would never reach the recognition rate of a tart who became famous for her disappearing cigar trick and became a "star" on her own "reality" show.
What sets Kaplan apart from many of his fellow journalists is his hard work and sacrifice to get the story, enduring a lot of hardship to get to the real world as we never see it, and seldom read about. And his story is about the future of mankind instead of tabloid titillation which dominates the news, but is really the toilet paper of history.
As someone who has traveled in many of the countries where Kaplan has developed his stories, I find his insightful observations and conversations with the real folk to put into perspective the superficial observations I have made, or read about from journalists who get the story from the comfort of their hotel rooms without ever getting their fingernails dirty. Even worse, his fellow journalists show up with their story already written and go home as soon as it is "verified" by talking to some propagandist, functionary, or peasant who fits their purposes.
This is another very good book about the real world, including the vast disparity in the development of areas and peoples whose ancestors were the subjects of Marco Polo's travelogue.
Americans can be very naive about the world, which is not surprising given the pitifully politically correct versions of history taught in all levels of schools today, but Kaplan has been there and experienced the world, with all its warts, and does a great job of putting it all into perspective. Like Polo's second excursion to Cathay, he went north and met the descendents of the same people who live in a world far closer to Polo's than the one we know today, seven hundred years later.
While some of the events and people are changed from the book, it is a great book to understand the complexity of the forces dictating world events today in a very dangerous part of the world, the breeding grounds of the next phase of world conflict.